Bonds & creditYields, spreads & debt
US Treasury yields head for biggest weekly rise since April 2025 after hot jobs and inflation data and Waller's talk of a half-point hike
US Treasury yields rose sharply this week after strong October payrolls, hotter-than-expected inflation and Fed Governor Christopher Waller's case for considering a half-point December hike. Two-year yields led a move about half the size of April 2025's tariff selloff.
From the Financial Times · Markets article of November 13, 2026 and cited sources: Official closes show the 10-year yield rising from 4.86% on 6 November to 5.10% on 12 November, a 24 basis-point gain. [5] [2] [9] [1]
SOURCES[5] US Treasury: Daily Par Yield Curve Rates, Nov 2026 home.treasury.gov[2] Bloomberg Law: Treasury yields see biggest weekly jump… news.bloomberglaw.com[9] Yahoo/Reuters: Euro yields hit multi-week highs sg.finance.yahoo.com
AT Pulse research deskPublished · Updated · 5 min read · AI-assisted analysisAI-assisted, not human-edited. Methodology Corrections Who owns this site
- What happened
- Official closes show the 10-year yield rising from 4.86% on 6 November to 5.10% on 12 November, a 24 basis-point gain. [5] [2] [9] [1]
- Original source
- Financial Times · Markets article, independent perspective
- Brief by
- AT Pulse research desk AI-assisted; publisher and contact on the desk page
- When
- November 13, 2026 article published
- Covered
- Nov 13 edition
- Evidence
- 13 sources across 12 sites
- 1US Treasuries set for worst week since Trump’s ‘liberation…ft.com
- 2Bloomberg Law: Treasury yields see biggest weekly jump…news.bloomberglaw.com
- 3Kitco: US bond yields up again, dollar downkitco.com
- 4KY3: US adds 165,000 jobs in Octoberky3.com
- 5US Treasury: Daily Par Yield Curve Rates, Nov 2026home.treasury.gov
- 6CNBC: CPI inflation report, October 2026cnbc.com
Reach: not measured yet
Official closes show the 10-year yield rising from 4.86% on 6 November to 5.10% on 12 November, a 24 basis-point gain. That is the steepest weekly climb since the 'liberation day' tariff shock but roughly half that week's 56 bp jump. [5] [2] [9] [1]
Three releases drove the move. October payrolls rose 165,000 against about 59,000 expected. Headline and core CPI each beat forecasts by 0.1 point. Waller then said a core reading near 0.3% would justify weighing a 50 bp hike. [4] [6] [7]
Short-dated yields rose most: the 2-year gained 32 bp and the 30-year 17 bp. This bear flattening suggests markets are repricing Fed policy rather than demanding a higher term premium. That reading is an inference from the yield data. [5]
Official data put the 10-year above 5%, a reference rate for mortgages and corporate debt, and front-end pricing now assumes a December hike.
Read the full assessment
The curve's shape suggests shifting Fed expectations, not long-term risk premiums, are lifting borrowing costs.
Executive brief
US Treasuries were heading for their worst week since President Trump's April 2025 "liberation day" tariff shock. Even so, this selloff is about half the size of that one. Official Treasury data show the 10-year yield rising from 4.86% on 6 November to 5.10% on 12 November (+24 bp). In the week of 7–11 April 2025 it rose 56 bp. Three things drove the move: a strong jobs report, October consumer prices that came in hotter than expected, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller arguing for a possible half-point rate hike in December. Investors who thought the global bond rout was over were caught out (FT).
What changed and event timeline
7–11 April 2025: The benchmark selloff
After the tariff announcement, the 10-year yield rose 56 bp to 4.53%, its largest weekly rise since 2001. The 30-year rose 44 bp (;).
Payrolls surprise
October payrolls rose 165,000, against about 59,000 expected. Unemployment fell to 4.1%, while the broader U-6 measure rose to 7.9%. The 10-year closed at 4.86% and the 2-year at 4.33% (;).
Hot CPI and a Waller warning
Headline CPI rose 0.4% and core CPI 0.3%, each 0.1 point above forecasts. In London, Waller said a core reading around 0.3% would justify considering a 50 bp hike.
The 10-year closes above 5%
On Treasury's official daily measure, the 10-year closed at 5.10%, the 2-year at 4.65% and the 30-year at 5.43%. Gold hit a 2026 low of $3,870 and EUR/USD broke to new 2026 lows (;).
The selloff goes global
The 10-year traded near 5.125%. Germany's 10-year Bund yield hit a two-week high of 3.357%, ending a four-week rally ().
Market levels and data access
- Official closes, 6→12 November: 2-year 4.33%→4.65% (+32 bp); 10-year 4.86%→5.10% (+24 bp); 30-year 5.26%→5.43% (+17 bp) (Treasury).
- Friday 13 November: at publication, only intraday quotes were available, so the full-week figure was not final.
- Fed policy: the target range is 3.75%–4.00%, and the next meeting is 8–9 December (CNBC).
Technical analysis for researchers and developers
- The 2-year rose almost twice as much as the 30-year, so the curve flattened as yields rose (a "bear flattening").
- How rare the move is: StoneX puts the four-session move at roughly 27–36 bp across maturities.
- Data caveat: no year-over-year CPI rate is available because the 2025 government shutdown broke comparable data. Analysis has to rely on monthly changes (CNBC).
Read the full section
- Short-dated yields led. The 2-year rose almost twice as much as the 30-year, so the curve flattened as yields rose (a "bear flattening"). That pattern points to repricing of Fed policy rather than a sell-off in long bonds driven by a higher term premium, which was the story in April 2025. This reading is an inference from the official data.
- How rare the move is: StoneX puts the four-session move at roughly 27–36 bp across maturities. It says this ranks in the largest 1.8% of comparable four-day moves since 1976 (StoneX).
- Data caveat: no year-over-year CPI rate is available because the 2025 government shutdown broke comparable data. Analysis has to rely on monthly changes (CNBC).
Claims and evidence
- "Biggest weekly yield spike since April 2025": reported by Reuters via Yahoo and consistent with Treasury data.
- Odds of a 50 bp December hike: estimates differ by source and time of day, at 9% (Yahoo Finance), 13.6% (CNBC) and about 15–16% (StoneX).
- 2-year level conflicts: PANews cites an intraday 4.77%, and an aggregator reported 4.85%. Neither matches the official 4.65% close.
Read the full section
- "Biggest weekly yield spike since April 2025": reported by Reuters via Yahoo and consistent with Treasury data.
- Odds of a 50 bp December hike: estimates differ by source and time of day, at 9% (Yahoo Finance), 13.6% (CNBC) and about 15–16% (StoneX).
- 2-year level conflicts: PANews cites an intraday 4.77%, and an aggregator reported 4.85%. Neither matches the official 4.65% close.
Context and prior work
- Waller's reversal: in January 2026 he dissented in favour of a rate cut (Federal Reserve).
- Other Fed voices: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said tightening could speed up "this winter" (Yahoo Finance).
Read the full section
- Waller's reversal: in January 2026 he dissented in favour of a rate cut (Federal Reserve). He now cites September PCE inflation of 3.7% a year, energy costs linked to the Strait of Hormuz, elevated prices for high-tech goods and the risk to Fed credibility (Federal Reserve).
- Other Fed voices: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said tightening could speed up "this winter" (Yahoo Finance).
Limitations, safety and contested findings
- Only an excerpt of the FT article was available, so its specific figures could not be checked.
- Not every analyst backs a larger hike.
- The labour data are mixed. U-6 underemployment rose, and wage growth of 3.1% lagged 3.7% inflation (KY3/CNBC).
Read the full section
- Only an excerpt of the FT article was available, so its specific figures could not be checked.
- Not every analyst backs a larger hike. Santander's Stephen Stanley expects 25 bp and questions whether Waller's 50 bp scenario reflects the committee's consensus (Yahoo Finance).
- The labour data are mixed. U-6 underemployment rose, and wage growth of 3.1% lagged 3.7% inflation (KY3/CNBC).
Business and practitioner implications
This describes market events and is not investment advice.
Read the full section
- Borrowing costs: a 10-year yield above 5% raises the reference rate for mortgages and corporate debt. Front-end pricing now assumes a December hike (CNBC).
- AI and electricity: the CPI report shows electricity up 0.9% in October. Economists partly link this to AI infrastructure demand, and Waller flags high-tech goods prices. AI build-out now appears in the inflation debate itself (CNBC).
- Upcoming data: producer prices and remarks from New York Fed President John Williams are next (StoneX).
This describes market events and is not investment advice.
The source trail.
Sources (13)
US Treasuries set for worst week since Trump’s ‘liberation day’
Feed excerpt only.
ft.com